I recall last year that some people made predictions that 2006 would be the “Year of the Avatar”, and while I considered that a possibility, I wasn’t as comfortable with that prediction as I am with someone saying that 2007 will instead be the year; that 2006 laid the groundwork for mass adoption. The argument is simple: average people are becoming increasingly educated to the term and how it’s being applied, so it’s not a foreign concept to a much larger number of people. There have been magazine covers showing avatars (including the one I sometimes mention: Anshe Chung). In addition, there has been the growth in popularity of most virtual world platforms as broadband continues to penetrate the market. Habbo Hotel is doing well I hear. Second Life has certainly received a significant amount of press. And even regular videogame avatars are now seen as something more than mere game characters and more as extensions of our real life selves (recall the “WoW is the new golf” quote). All that in mind, it’s worth reading a story I caught last week, “Why is Japan crazed over Avatar?” (Link). Here’s one clip from early in the piece:
Japanese online game portal NHN Hangame, last year sales revenue recorded $53.5 Million Yen (USD $46 million). When realizing that over 80 percent of the figure came from avatar and related sales, it is a big surprise to Korean game companies indeed.
The article goes on to discuss some cultural differences accounting for the differing behavior between the Japanese and Koreans, but I wonder about other differences that might be affecting behavior… such as cultural perceptions and attitudes regarding Reputation and status. Regardless, the Japanese as a group are powerful trendsetters, so their interest may ignite greater adoption rates.
Add to this the long-awaited movie, “Avatar”, from blockbuster filmmaker James Cameron, and the word itself is sure to be on most everyone’s lips at some point during the coming year. There’s already press starting to generate buzz around Cameron’s return (Link). Given what I read in that article (because I’ve not read anything else about it), I’d venture that Cameron’s film title is based on the definition of the word as being “incarnation of a god”. Not exactly your standard idea for what an online avatar represents, but there is a godlike quality to these online activities. Simply flying inside a virtual space lends itself to that perception. If that connection occurs, watch adoption rates rise more quickly; sufficiently enough for 2007 to be the year some very interesting things happen.
Something else that is definitely pushing the mass market adoption of avatars is the Wii.
While some people have derided the Mii’s for their simplicity, I don’t think it’s hard to argue that they aren’t approachable.
Over the holidays, we had aunts, uncles and grandparents who had never played a “computer game” enjoying creating themselves as a Mii and jumping right in. I think it’s a definite game changer.
I’ve heard of the Wii avatars, but haven’t had first hand experience. But given the way Nintendo’s product has captured the imagination of so many people outside the regular crowd, that’s no surprise. Whether it’ll be enough, I don’t know. I’m still hesitant to make a prediction on this. Perhaps that’s because I see avatars as being tied to real life identities and part of a larger online system (that perhaps ties into OpenID and one of the recently launched Reputation systems). Last year was a banner year, but adoption by the mainstream is the real litmus test imo.