I couldn’t help but roll my eyes at a recent post over on 3pointD (Link) where the author, Mark Wallace, enlightens(?) readers with his “predictions”:
• Much of broadcast media will evolve to incorporate virtual worlds and geospatial technologies
• The display of information will take on three dimensions where useful, and we’ll find ways to make 3D models and worlds useful in more and more areas
• The physical world will stream digital information directly to mobile devices
• Lifelogging, geospatial technologies and the heightened expressive power of virtual worlds will make possible deeper communication between peopleThese changes will come on at varying speeds, of course, and in varying degrees, but I’m pretty sure, looking out at the landscape of technology in development, the corporations interested in that technology, and the people who are already using what we’ve got, that those and probably more are on its way. (Bringing game-like feedback systems into non-game contexts, for example, is another change that’s on its way, but it isn’t specifically 3pointD, so I’m not going to address it here.)
I’ll keep my comments… gentle.
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1) Much of broadcast media will evolve to incorporate virtual worlds and geospatial technologies
So glaringly obvious this is not a prediction, afaic. And geospatial technologies… like what I spelled out over a year ago and which went well beyond just broadcast media to include other corporate players:
We’ve got the ability to inject advertising into online games… and do it locally.
Sorry. This bullet point isn’t worth my time, and I have difficulty imagining anyone reading it found this “prediction” especially insightful.
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2) The display of information will take on three dimensions where useful, and we’ll find ways to make 3D models and worlds useful in more and more areas
More obviousness, afaic. And also discussed previously by myself and others. Here’s one from about a year ago that pushes on the edge of what he’s discussing in his related explanation:
I’ve little doubt others discussed/predicted this convergence long before I posted that entry.
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3) The physical world will stream digital information directly to mobile devices
Like getting the latest flight info on your PDA or cell phone when you arrive at the airport? Like the wireless devices I was helping design in the mid-90’s? Or something like my socially-oriented RadTag concept (now defined as a “blogject” since it dates back to 2004) which senses radiological hazards and streams warning information in real time to anyone wearing one? Like spimes and kirkyans?
Next.
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4) Lifelogging, geospatial technologies and the heightened expressive power of virtual worlds will make possible deeper communication between people
Increasingly real simulation along with improvements in connectivity will improve communication? Really?
I’m not sure exactly how to express my mock shock at this startling thought.
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Y’know, I think Mr. Wallace should spare us all his predictions and stick to his busy job of relaying journalistic stories instead of wasting time (assuming that this was really about that at all).
Obvious to us, but remember… noobs read our blogs too. :)
Then wouldn’t those noobs think these “predictions” are new, when they aren’t?
Come on csven, nothing about the future is ‘obvious’.
Qualified “predictions” about the future and extrapolating existing trends can be obvious, imo, and that’s how I read this one. For example:
“The display of information will take on three dimensions where useful”
Uh… “where useful”? I’m sorry, I gotta laugh at that. And this whole thing is predicated with one big caveat:
“These changes will come on at varying speeds, of course, and in varying degrees”
I don’t call this “prediction”, I call it hedging bets.
Maybe Mark’s been reading too much of Shirkey, or hanging out with people who are still, “ZOMG 3-D = Game!”… eh?
I don’t know. All I know is that this brought to mind that scene in Minority Report; the one with the ball rolling on the table and one of the guys “predicting” the ball was going to fall off.
Csven, honestly, is it that slow of a news day that you gotta swing at Mark? :)
Why not post your own predictions? That’d certainly illustrate your point better.
It’s sensible stuff, it’s just the word ‘prediction’ that rankles. All these are happening now, as csven says. It’s a matter of degree. Useful to have the obvious pointed out, since sometimes we overlook it, but not a great piece of journalism. I suppose you have to keep providing stuff to keep the Google Ads coming.
Mind you some of the things csven didn’t quote strike me as rather whacky… “You didn’t realize MySpace was a Kurzweilian technology, did you? … I think of it as more of an identity-creation site; it’s a place where people have begun uploading their personalities to computers. This is the lifelogging piece: We’re now able to quantify and store more and more information about ourselves, and the under-18 generation is more and more interested in doing so. We may not always be interested in publishing this information broadly, but we’ll definitely start to take advantage of new ways to store it locally and to use it to extract new information about ourselves, and to tailor our interactions with the rest of the world…”
Sadly, I’m over 18, so I just don’t see any meaning in this.
@Hiro, as I would hope is clear by now, I don’t play favorites. Recall my calling out Tony Walsh recently for his comments regarding Rupture (reLink); his response was exemplary imo. Recall my comments about Electric Sheep’s projects for whom I was under contract while working on VLB (reLink 1, reLink 2). I’ve not self-censored for their sake; why for Wallace?
I’d like to point out the obvious myself: there are no ads on this blog to get in the way of saying what I think. This is an unsponsored blog and I do this without compensation of any kind. In short, I’m not beholden to anyone or anything for any reason… even when I work for them.
Furthermore, I don’t claim to be a “journalist” and I’d argue that my standards don’t need to rise to that level (though I think they arguably exceed his and others on some counts). His standards, imo, should be exemplary and beyond reproach. Consequently, if I think his piece is self-congratulatory, uninformative tripe, that’s my opinion and I’ll say so in no uncertain terms.
As to your suggestion, I believe not posting predictions already makes my point.
@David – I originally had a longer post and that section was part of it. But as I indicated, I decided not to cut deeper than necessary.
Oh dear, not another Bruce in the making.
Its funny Journalists are starting to get out classed and really need to do their jobs a whole lot better, as the blogging platform moves into the main stream and now a fine tool for citizean journalism.
Its not only that, voices in the know issuing challenges start to get alot easier with blogs, thus the authors really need good research backings and strong thinking ability to really make a difference.
Just like cheap digital SLRs is to photographers, and cheap downloadable CAD tools is to designers, the internet makes it a level playing field for everybody therefore the professionals in any profession better know what they are talking about.