…Forest for the Trees

I have to confess to being a bit perplexed. It seems my “rocket launcher” example is getting some attention… but for mostly limited reasons it seems to me. Fab the videogame data to make toys? It goes well beyond that. If I only wanted to make a game model into a real object I’d rip the data straight from the game instead of hijacking the data as I did (and I’m pretty sure plenty of people have done this already). Truth is, the real objective behind that attempt was not achieved (the Quake model was merely a test). And the point behind that post wasn’t really fabbing.

At least one person got a big part of it… I hope the others did too but maybe just aren’t really discussing it.

My First Prediction… and Maybe My Last

{May 14, 2007: For all the reddit visitors, this post is almost exactly two years old, so it’s a bit dated imo. I’m not entirely sure MS is on track, though they may be based on this Where 2.0 event scheduled for the end of this month (Link), or this one at the same conference (Link).}

I wrote the following prediction some weeks back and then bit my lip; didn’t want to look too “out there”. But having just read a news item over on PCWorld.com, Gates Unveils MSN Virtual Earth, I’m ready to own up to it since this marks the first in what I expect to be a series of moves. So here it is:

Prediction: Microsoft is building a virtual 3D world.

And I’m talking virtual world [actually a virtual “mirror” world] as in Snow Crash’s “Metaverse”. I’m making this prediction based on not just recent news, but on some very old things. Here’s the basic breakdown:

– MS purchases Groove (two days ago), software designed for virtual collaboration; good for real world product development, but possibly better for virtual world development [or even better, transreality development]
– MS announces Xbox 2 specs to include “Marketplace” and “Micro-payments”
– Xbox picks Unreal engine 3 as primary engine platform, by far the most realistic 3D on the RT block.
– Meqon unveils radically advanced physics module, also to be compatible with Xbox
– Rumors that MS is pulling out of MSNBC; MS learned the big media ropes and it’s now time to move on perhaps.
– Allegorithmic’s “procedural textures” – infinitely subdivided, efficient, and perfect for games and virtual worlds
– Valve’s creation of the STEAM distribution system, paving the way for online content delivery as well as upstream content creation/distribution/sales
– The emergence of “virtual economies” and studies of their real value
– Longstanding MS goal to be not just a software company, but a major media player
– MS’s ongoing purchases of high-quality game development houses such as Bungie, Ensemble, etc
– MS’s initial involvement with VRML, and then it’s move out and into gaming where the real advances were being made without the concessions and compromises of a consortium
– MS’s positioning of the Xbox as a home media device instead of a game console*
– MS’s attempt to kickstart content development in the mid-90’s by purchasing ultra-pricey SoftImage3D, porting it from the Unix OS to Windows NT, slashing retail prices, and then inexplicably selling it off – leading to a freefall in 3D software pricing
– MS’s seemingly odd practice of hiring artists and content creators (including people studying esoteric musical instruments and such as reported – I believe – in the Seattle press) since the early 1990’s

Note the * item. Seems we got alot of that message from MS during E3. And I’d now add to this list the following:

– the announcement of Will Wright’s Spore (posts here and here) videogame which uses both parametrics and procedurals to allow unprecedented consumer creative potential (it may someday mark the turning point in the deployment and eventual mass acceptance of virtual worlds, imo).
– Sony’s policy shift regarding virtual commerce and the announcement of their new Sony Exchange virtual marketplace (posted originally here).

I already said we should expect a run-up in MS stock here when they were trading $24.19 (March 29) and I see they’re now up to $25.82 barely 7 weeks later. Effectively meaningless, but not bad.

The Accomplice

Hijacked data in CAD

Some of my entries are going to seem like they just don’t belong here. I realize that. I post entries on applied art, virtual reality, and rapid prototyping technology, and a fair number of you probably don’t see how I connect those things; especially if you’re only looking at a particular type of entry (e.g. “meatspace”).

I like to think of it as a kind of spiderweb-in-progress. I see these strands between disciplines, the increasingly dense interactions we all have on almost every level both real and abstract, and read things that seem to confirm I’m not entirely off-base. One such thing I’ve read is Seth Godin’s (Idea Virus) blog entry for today. From his entry:

That’s what marketers do. We have the “placebo affect.” (* The knack for creating placebos.) Of course, we need to persuade ourselves that it’s morally and ethically and financially okay to participate in something as unmeasurable as the placebo effect. The effect is controversial and it goes largely unspoken. Very rarely do we come to meetings and say, “well, here’s our cool new PBX for Fortune 1000 companies. It’s exactly the same as the last model, except the phones are designed by frog design so they’re cooler and more approachable and people are more likely to invest a few minutes in learning how to use them, so customer satisfaction will go up and we’ll sell more, even though it’s precisely the same technology we were selling yesterday.”

His comment brings to mind an interview with architect Peter Eisenman (you know, the guy who did that Berlin museum thing the press was talking about not long ago). I’m referring to this part (punctuation corrected):

Archinect: I just mean making it pretty as opposed to ugly.
Eisenman: I don’t know if I would say it’s “pretty”.
Archinect: I liked it, and I don’t mean “pretty” as an insult.
Eisenman: OK. Let’s say, making it something that people take notice of, that causes them to say, I like it or I don’t like it.
Archinect: That improves the built environment.
Eisenman: Yes. OK.

Any trip over to the Core77 design forums will likely yield some ongoing flame war over terms like “pretty” and “styling” and “design” that’s not too dissimilar to the above exchange. Designers are very conscious of this “placebo affect“. We are – to use his term – accomplices.

But now allow me to connect this back to a recent entry I made called “Selling the Experience“:

Friend: Can you imagine that? Someone paid like a $100 for this sword-thing and it’s not even real! It’s nothing. Make believe. It only exists in the game.
Me: You need to think about it differently.
Friend: But it doesn’t make any sense. They’re buying nothing!
Me: What do you buy when you get tickets to a baseball game? Or a concert?

The metaverse is – to borrow Mr. Godin’s term – a “storyteller’s” world (and that’s not just for Marketing, but for anyone… especially Content Creators). I’ve certainly pushed that side of it because of disconnects like my friendly exchange above. Average consumers (the one Mr. Godin is saying Marketing lies to) have been so effectively “placebo-ized”, they can’t tell what they’re buying anymore! To me, consumer behavior is more like an addiction, and too many of them are working and spending in something akin to a kind of lab-rat-on-speed experiment gone awry. Heaven forbid we should tell them what I’m going to say next.

The metaverse is not just an ethereal “storyteller’s” world. It’s a world comprised of data. Just look at the reasons Marketing people are salivating over it. The tracking data is orders of magnitude better than trying to count eyeballs watching a television screen. And in a 3D interface (which is what those videogames really are), that data goes well beyond just “hits” or “click-throughs”- it’s comprised of “vectors” and “3D positional data”. And here’s the important part: that data can be converted into more than just marketing statistics. It can be converted into real product; something you can hold… in the flesh. The Story made Real.

The image above is a screen capture from Pro/ENGINEER CAD, perhaps the most widely used product development 3D application for design and manufacturing. That object is a piece of a virtual game object “captured” from id’s Quake 3 videogame (the barrel of a Rocket Launcher). It was not created in my CAD application. It was not ripped from the game files. I “hijacked” the data streaming to my monitor using a freely available tool. And now, if I desired, I could manipulate the data and create a real product.

Imagine now that I’m in the Long Tail, with a home fabrication unit and an eBay store. Things start to get really interesting, don’t they?

Seth Godin talks about having an accomplice. I wonder if he realizes just how far that extends. I also hope that in this brave new world, the word “partner” becomes more appropriate than “accomplice”.

Thiel On Virtual Money

Via Jerry Paffendorf’s SL Future Salon blog entry, comes word that IT Conversations has a 2004 talk posted on their site by PayPal co-founder and former CEO Peter Thiel. The topic: Virtual Money.

Since the bridge between design, virtual product, and personal manufacturing will be largely built as a result of some kind of monetary incentive, it’s perhaps appropriate to begin considering the different avenues by which this incentive will arrive. It’s an issue that’s currently near and dear to me. Even though I’m not particularly interested in money, one still has to pay for this stuff, so I’ll be giving it a listen soon.