Future Blog

I’ve been asked to give some indication of what’s in store for this blog and whether it will be continued. The short answer is “Yes”. However, the next incarnation will be at a different URL… though still within the rebang.com domain.

Further, because blogspam is such a bandwidth ripper and because I’d rather leave this ad-free, comments and trackbacks will likely not be permitted. I’m instead looking at other options for discussion and hope to have some way to facilitate it. Trackbacks will likely not be opened as it’s simply too ripe for abuse. Perhaps if I wanted to dedicate more time to deleting the spam and/or keeping up with extensions to control it, but I don’t; it might be of interest to those of you who visit this site that after all this time I still have zombie PC’s pinging to try to post their worthless messages on outdated entries. That’s the net.

Also, while I’d like to have my new website up and running by 1 Oct, the truth is that what I’m doing goes well beyond just a blog. This incarnation of the weblog was really an overly-successful test… never intended to be permanent. If you recall my focus, then you might get some hint of where I’ll be taking this website. Unfortunately that means stretching out into a lot of seemingly unrelated areas. I hope that when I’m done you’ll appreciate what can only be a modest effort.

Personalized Marketing aka CRM

Adage (free registration) has a revealing article online that’s tied to virtual spaces (even though it may not seem like it is). It’s called “In Search of Marketing’s Future“. You can guess some of what that future is if I’m talking about it. From the article:

The event {Outlook 2005}, which came one year after McDonald’s CMO Larry Light declared the death of mass marketing, made clear that there is life after that death — namely in the form of hyper-targeted one-to-one marketing strategies that use a variety of technologies.

That sounds sufficiently innocent; almost friendly even. As do a couple other quotables. But here’s the a piece of the article that caught my attention:

“We built this huge umbrella. We looked strongly and deeply at the internet,” Mr. Weedfald said. “The internet has very little value unless you understand the back end of something called CRM. It’s about tracking, converting and retaining customers 24 hours a day, utilizing the power of wireless and the internet.”

Is now a good time to talk about the “tracking” and spying tools that are already employed in virtual worlds? These comments sure make it sound like Big Brother has siblings. Should that be “restraining”?

Long Tail 3D Mental Images

Long Tail Toroid Evolution in Second Life Simulation

I’ve been toying with Chris Anderson’s Long Tail ideas for a few months now; turning them over in my head and trying to resolve some perceived discontinuities: “cult” items, functions of Time, aso. All this in order to arrive at a more complete unified theory, I guess. I’ve even used Second Life as a way to help visualize and discuss these ideas (see above image). Last night I finally grabbed some time to model and render my latest 3D models which I collectively call the “ecoToroid” (I went 3D after seeing those “signal to noise” graphs; and especially that “Sales vs Stuff” image).

As I commented on The Long Tail blog, I’m guilty of not giving this the attention it probably deserves; especially in trying to figure out what this thing looks like in a historical context – I’ve already modified my 3D models once and I could see where they could use more thought and further modification (maybe even reverting back to something more like what I had originally). Perhaps later when I have more time. Anyway, instead of trying to explain what I’m thinking, I’m just going to post a couple of images and see what happens. Maybe these will spark ideas in someone else’s mind. Maybe not. But I figure it’s better than letting these things sit on my hard drive.

The Long Tail Curve as a Partial Section of a Time Dependent Function - Obscurity vs Distribution

Three Long Tale Sections at Distinct Points in Time

I also thought I would open up the comments on this entry. Typically I don’t allow for comments simply because the spam I get is too much bother to deal with on a blog as obscure as this one. There’s also the fact that I need to mod the code so the comment block width works on all browsers; right now you can type well outside the boundary in IE I think – sorry about that. If you want to leave a comment, I’d suggest typing it in a text editor and doing a cut ‘n paste. Hopefully in the near future I’ll fix this page so it’s a little nicer. Til then….

(edit: O-kay. Seems as if opening up one post to comments opens up the others, even though their commenting has been closed. Must be in the WordPress code but I just don’t have time to find out. Having just mass deleted about 500 spam comments, looks like it’s time to close the door for a bit. Oh well.)

(images Copyright © C. Sven Johnson)

Reputation Rules

Reputation capital is something I’ve recently become more interested in since joining the Second Life virtual community. It’s certainly something I’ve used in my real life – my rep and not my salesmanship have gotten me the design projects that pay the bills. Most people understand how it all works… in the real world. But how it functions in a virtual world or online is a bit more complex. That old New Yorker cartoon “On the internet, nobody knows you’re a dog” comes to mind here.

In the real world, there are obvious consequences for bad behavior. But in a virtual world the perception of anonymity leads many to behave in ways they wouldn’t dare in real life. Except there’s often a consequence from what I’ve observed which takes at least one of two forms:

a) the shroud of anonymity is removed and inappropriate virtual behavior is linked to a real life person… surprise, surprise. So the “dog” isn’t entirely correct; with effort, a person’s real life identity can often be determined. The RIAA’s lawsuits against “anonymous” music pirates are one example.

b) the real life person has invested time and effort in some facet of their virtual representation and their poor reputation at some point becomes a barrier to further reward. For example, they might have stated their dislike for a particular group of people… gays, liberals, asians, whatever… but then find that to “level up” in some fashion they require the assistance of another individual who belongs to one of the disparaged groups. Open mouth, insert foot.

If you’ve been reading my blog, you might recall this post that dealt with reputation. There’s a link in there to a WorldChanging post (here) and inside that is a link to a Terra Nova entry (here). Interesting reading. Add to that this video interview over on Release 1.0 that discusses Online Reputation Systems with an eBay representative. It’s not too long and very informative.

The reason I bring this up now is the big news that eBay has purchased Shopping.com. For more about that, BusinessWeek online has a report you can read here. And notice this line in the BW article:

The purchase is true to eBay’s custom of following its customers into new markets.

Now if eBay follows their customers, and more and more virtual goods start changing hands, then it stands to reason eBay will at some point move into that territory. So now you see why reputation is such an interesting element. Without their feedback system, eBay might not be the success they are today. And reputation systems are increasingly important in virtual activities – whether games or worlds.

And btw, I assume people are aware that eBay’s founders have invested in Second Life and perhaps other virtual world projects.

The Accomplice

Hijacked data in CAD

Some of my entries are going to seem like they just don’t belong here. I realize that. I post entries on applied art, virtual reality, and rapid prototyping technology, and a fair number of you probably don’t see how I connect those things; especially if you’re only looking at a particular type of entry (e.g. “meatspace”).

I like to think of it as a kind of spiderweb-in-progress. I see these strands between disciplines, the increasingly dense interactions we all have on almost every level both real and abstract, and read things that seem to confirm I’m not entirely off-base. One such thing I’ve read is Seth Godin’s (Idea Virus) blog entry for today. From his entry:

That’s what marketers do. We have the “placebo affect.” (* The knack for creating placebos.) Of course, we need to persuade ourselves that it’s morally and ethically and financially okay to participate in something as unmeasurable as the placebo effect. The effect is controversial and it goes largely unspoken. Very rarely do we come to meetings and say, “well, here’s our cool new PBX for Fortune 1000 companies. It’s exactly the same as the last model, except the phones are designed by frog design so they’re cooler and more approachable and people are more likely to invest a few minutes in learning how to use them, so customer satisfaction will go up and we’ll sell more, even though it’s precisely the same technology we were selling yesterday.”

His comment brings to mind an interview with architect Peter Eisenman (you know, the guy who did that Berlin museum thing the press was talking about not long ago). I’m referring to this part (punctuation corrected):

Archinect: I just mean making it pretty as opposed to ugly.
Eisenman: I don’t know if I would say it’s “pretty”.
Archinect: I liked it, and I don’t mean “pretty” as an insult.
Eisenman: OK. Let’s say, making it something that people take notice of, that causes them to say, I like it or I don’t like it.
Archinect: That improves the built environment.
Eisenman: Yes. OK.

Any trip over to the Core77 design forums will likely yield some ongoing flame war over terms like “pretty” and “styling” and “design” that’s not too dissimilar to the above exchange. Designers are very conscious of this “placebo affect“. We are – to use his term – accomplices.

But now allow me to connect this back to a recent entry I made called “Selling the Experience“:

Friend: Can you imagine that? Someone paid like a $100 for this sword-thing and it’s not even real! It’s nothing. Make believe. It only exists in the game.
Me: You need to think about it differently.
Friend: But it doesn’t make any sense. They’re buying nothing!
Me: What do you buy when you get tickets to a baseball game? Or a concert?

The metaverse is – to borrow Mr. Godin’s term – a “storyteller’s” world (and that’s not just for Marketing, but for anyone… especially Content Creators). I’ve certainly pushed that side of it because of disconnects like my friendly exchange above. Average consumers (the one Mr. Godin is saying Marketing lies to) have been so effectively “placebo-ized”, they can’t tell what they’re buying anymore! To me, consumer behavior is more like an addiction, and too many of them are working and spending in something akin to a kind of lab-rat-on-speed experiment gone awry. Heaven forbid we should tell them what I’m going to say next.

The metaverse is not just an ethereal “storyteller’s” world. It’s a world comprised of data. Just look at the reasons Marketing people are salivating over it. The tracking data is orders of magnitude better than trying to count eyeballs watching a television screen. And in a 3D interface (which is what those videogames really are), that data goes well beyond just “hits” or “click-throughs”- it’s comprised of “vectors” and “3D positional data”. And here’s the important part: that data can be converted into more than just marketing statistics. It can be converted into real product; something you can hold… in the flesh. The Story made Real.

The image above is a screen capture from Pro/ENGINEER CAD, perhaps the most widely used product development 3D application for design and manufacturing. That object is a piece of a virtual game object “captured” from id’s Quake 3 videogame (the barrel of a Rocket Launcher). It was not created in my CAD application. It was not ripped from the game files. I “hijacked” the data streaming to my monitor using a freely available tool. And now, if I desired, I could manipulate the data and create a real product.

Imagine now that I’m in the Long Tail, with a home fabrication unit and an eBay store. Things start to get really interesting, don’t they?

Seth Godin talks about having an accomplice. I wonder if he realizes just how far that extends. I also hope that in this brave new world, the word “partner” becomes more appropriate than “accomplice”.